Pakistan Labels Afghanistan Its “Number One Enemy” — How the Crisis Threatens Regional Stability

—

by

Himanshu
in

The fragile relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has taken a dramatic turn in October 2025. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, recently declared Afghanistan as the “number one enemy” of Pakistan — a statement that sent shockwaves across South Asia. The minister warned that Pakistan will “no longer tolerate terrorism emanating from Afghan soil”, signaling the beginning of a potentially volatile chapter between the two neighbors.

This escalating tension not only threatens the peace and stability of the region but also risks dragging in global powers with strategic interests in South and Central Asia. From cross-border terrorism to economic disruptions and diplomatic fallout, the implications of this crisis could be far-reaching.

1. Background: Decades of a Love-Hate Relationship

Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2,640-kilometer-long border, historically known as the Durand Line, established in 1893 during British colonial rule. This border has always been contentious, with ethnic Pashtun tribes living on both sides and freely crossing for centuries.

After the Taliban took control of Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan initially supported the regime, hoping for stability and cooperation. However, relations quickly soured as Pakistan accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring militants from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — a terrorist group responsible for hundreds of deadly attacks inside Pakistan.

In 2024 alone, over 1,200 Pakistani civilians and soldiers were killed in TTP-related attacks, according to internal intelligence reports. This surge in violence became a major political issue for the Pakistani government, leading to the current hardline stance.

2. The Breaking Point: Khawaja Asif’s “Enemy Number One” Statement

During a televised press conference in Islamabad, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated:

“Afghanistan has become Pakistan’s number one enemy. We have exercised restraint for long enough. Pakistan will no longer tolerate terrorism launched from Afghan soil.”

The minister also hinted that Pakistan’s patience was running out and that “cross-border retaliation” was under consideration if the Taliban administration failed to control militant activity.

This declaration came days after a suicide bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing 32 Pakistani security personnel. Pakistan blamed the TTP, claiming the attackers were trained and equipped inside Afghanistan.

3. Rising Border Tensions and Military Activity

Since mid-2025, border skirmishes between the two nations have increased dramatically. According to defense sources:

Month (2025)Border Incidents ReportedPakistani CasualtiesAfghan CasualtiesCivilians Displaced
June1423172,000+
July1931223,500+
August2228295,000+
September2635306,800+
October (till 10th)1114121,700+

The Kurram, North Waziristan, and Chaman sectors remain the most volatile zones. Satellite imagery has reportedly shown Pakistan reinforcing its border posts and deploying additional surveillance drones.

4. Afghanistan’s Response: Accusations of Violation

In response, Afghanistan’s Taliban government strongly rejected Pakistan’s allegations. Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid condemned the remarks, stating:

“Pakistan’s claims are baseless. We do not allow any group to use Afghan soil against our neighbors. If Pakistan attacks our sovereignty, we will defend ourselves.”

The Taliban also accused Pakistan of conducting airstrikes inside Afghan territory, particularly in Khost and Paktika provinces, which allegedly resulted in civilian casualties. Islamabad has not officially confirmed these strikes but maintains that “all actions are in self-defense.”

5. The Root Cause: The TTP Problem

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), founded in 2007, has become a major destabilizing force. Despite ideological similarities with the Afghan Taliban, the group operates independently and opposes the Pakistani state.

Key Facts about TTP:

CategoryDetails
FoundedDecember 2007
Active Fighters (2025 est.)6,500 – 8,000
Key Areas of OperationKhyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Eastern Afghanistan
Major AttacksAPS Peshawar (2014), Swat Valley attacks (2009–2023), Karachi suicide bombings (2024)
DemandsImposition of strict Sharia law, end to Pakistan’s alliance with the West

Pakistan insists that the Afghan Taliban provides shelter to TTP commanders, while Kabul claims that TTP militants are Pakistan’s internal problem. This blame game has paralyzed all meaningful dialogue.

6. Regional and Global Reactions

The escalating hostility between Islamabad and Kabul has alarmed neighboring countries and global powers alike.

  • China expressed “deep concern,” as both nations are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road investments, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
  • Iran called for restraint, fearing spillover violence near its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
  • India is closely monitoring the situation, as instability between Pakistan and Afghanistan could shift regional power balances and increase cross-border militancy risks.
  • United Nations officials warned that a full-scale military conflict could displace over 1 million people, aggravating an already dire humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.

7. Economic and Humanitarian Fallout

The economic impact of the tensions is already visible. Cross-border trade, valued at $2.1 billion annually, has plummeted by nearly 45% in the last quarter of 2025.

Refugee movements are surging again — Pakistan, which already hosts 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees, fears another 300,000 new arrivals if violence escalates.

Meanwhile, border towns like Chaman and Torkham face food shortages, inflation spikes, and unemployment due to suspended trade convoys.

8. What Lies Ahead: Scenarios for 2026

ScenarioDescriptionRisk Level
De-escalation via diplomacyPakistan and Afghanistan reopen dialogue with Chinese mediationMedium
Limited cross-border strikesPakistan conducts targeted strikes against TTP bases inside AfghanistanHigh
Full-scale conflictSustained military confrontation leading to mass displacementCritical
Frozen hostilitiesOngoing low-intensity clashes without formal warVery High

Experts believe that unless both nations coordinate on counterterrorism and border management, the conflict will deepen and possibly drag the region into instability that could last years.

Conclusion

Pakistan and Afghanistan now stand at a dangerous crossroads. What once was a complex friendship laced with mistrust has now evolved into open hostility. By labeling Afghanistan its “number one enemy,” Pakistan has made a statement that will likely reshape South Asian geopolitics.

The coming months will test whether both governments choose diplomacy over escalation — or risk plunging the region into another cycle of violence, displacement, and economic turmoil.

Disclaimer

This article is based on publicly available reports, official statements, and factual analysis. It is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The author does not endorse any political viewpoint or party.