India’s Bold Strategy on PoK: Why Pakistan Is Becoming Increasingly Uneasy Over Kashmir Developments

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by

Himanshu
in

India’s renewed assertiveness regarding Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has started to create a visible sense of unease within Pakistan’s political and military establishment. Over the past year, multiple developments — from diplomatic signaling to ground-level unrest in PoK — have combined to strengthen India’s position while exposing cracks in Pakistan’s internal structure.

This shift marks one of the most significant recalibrations in the India-Pakistan equation since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, and it has reignited the discussion on whether India could eventually move toward reclaiming PoK.

India’s Renewed Posture on PoK

1. From Diplomatic Silence to Strategic Assertion

For decades, India’s approach toward PoK was primarily defensive, focusing on protecting Jammu & Kashmir from external infiltration. However, since 2024, there has been a clear policy shift:

TimelineEvent / StatementImpact
May 2024Indian Defence Minister warned Pakistan over continued infiltration attemptsSignaled India’s willingness to act preemptively
June 2024Operation Sindoor reportedly targeted multiple terror facilities across LoCShowed India’s enhanced cross-border capability
August 2024MEA reaffirmed PoK as “integral and inseparable part of India”Reinforced constitutional claim
January 2025Indian Army Chief stated readiness to “reintegrate” PoK if Parliament ordersMilitary endorsement of national position
May 2025Protests erupted across PoK against Islamabad’s administrationValidated India’s claim of “Pakistani oppression”

India’s consistent messaging has combined military credibility with diplomatic pressure, leaving Pakistan to react defensively rather than set the agenda.

Growing Unrest Inside PoK

Reports and local accounts suggest that civil discontent within PoK has reached unprecedented levels. Over the last few months, large-scale protests have been recorded in Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Kotli, and Mirpur — cities that historically remained under firm Pakistani control.

Key Drivers of the Protests:

  • Economic neglect: Local populations complain about poor infrastructure and joblessness, despite PoK’s proximity to China’s CPEC projects.
  • Resource plundering: Hydropower and mineral resources are reportedly diverted to mainland Pakistan, leaving PoK residents under-compensated.
  • Civilian suppression: Several human rights groups have pointed to excessive use of force by Pakistani Rangers.
  • Inflation & unemployment: With inflation averaging over 29% in Pakistan, PoK’s living standards have drastically fallen.

Estimated Figures (as of mid-2025):

IndicatorEstimated ValueRemarks
Unemployment rate23%Nearly double Pakistan’s national average
Poverty level41%Driven by lack of industrialization
Electricity availability12–14 hours/day in rural PoKDespite being an energy-producing region
Literacy rate65%Below Indian-administered Kashmir’s 77%
Annual protests (2024–25)60+ recorded incidentsIndicate rising local dissatisfaction

These figures reinforce the perception that Pakistan’s administration in PoK has failed to deliver basic governance, allowing India to highlight the situation internationally as a human rights concern.

India’s Multi-Layered Strategy

India’s recent moves indicate a three-pronged strategy on PoK — Diplomatic, Military, and Psychological.

1. Diplomatic Pressure

India has been consistently raising the PoK issue in international forums. The government emphasizes:

  • Pakistan’s illegal occupation since 1947.
  • Suppression of ethnic and religious minorities.
  • Human rights violations and lack of political autonomy.
  • Advocacy for PoK citizens’ right to self-expression.

2. Military Preparedness

While India maintains that it seeks peace, its defense modernization underlines readiness:

  • Expansion of mountain strike corps along LoC.
  • Induction of Rafale jets and light combat helicopters suitable for terrain operations.
  • Upgrading of border surveillance using AI-based systems.
  • Precision-guided strike capability demonstrated in 2024 under Operation Sindoor.

3. Psychological and Information Warfare

India’s public statements, social media outreach, and controlled media narratives aim to:

  • Project India as a protector of Kashmiri voices.
  • Highlight Pakistan’s failures in PoK governance.
  • Create internal debate within Pakistan regarding the cost of holding PoK.

Pakistan’s Reactions and Constraints

Pakistan’s traditional response pattern — combining nuclear rhetoric, diplomatic protests, and proxy warfare — is visibly weakening.

Major Constraints Facing Pakistan:

  1. Economic Breakdown:
    Pakistan’s foreign reserves remain below USD 8 billion, enough for less than two months of imports.
    Inflation crossed 29.7% in early 2025, limiting defense spending.
  2. Political Instability:
    A fragile coalition in Islamabad, combined with civil-military friction, has reduced policymaking agility.
  3. International Isolation:
    Pakistan’s repeated calls for external mediation over Kashmir have found little traction in the UN or with Western powers.
  4. Internal Security Burden:
    Pakistan faces escalating violence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, diverting resources away from PoK.

These constraints have weakened Pakistan’s ability to counter India’s assertiveness effectively, making it appear defensive and jittery in global perception.

The Changing Ground Reality

A. India’s Economic Advantage

India’s GDP growth rate in 2025 is projected at 6.9%, compared to Pakistan’s 1.7%, allowing more room for defense modernization and sustained diplomatic campaigns.

B. Shift in Global Perception

Many international observers now view India’s stance on PoK as a legitimate territorial claim, especially after repeated evidence of administrative failure and human rights violations under Pakistani control.

C. Civilian Voices from PoK

Social media posts and leaked videos from PoK frequently show citizens raising Indian flags during protests — a symbolic yet powerful statement of disillusionment with Islamabad.

D. Technological and Intelligence Superiority

India’s integration of satellite surveillance, cyber intelligence, and electronic warfare tools has given it clear informational superiority along the Line of Control.

Strategic and Political Implications

The cumulative effect of these developments has changed the India-Pakistan deterrence equation.

DimensionEarlier Situation (2010–2019)Current Scenario (2025)
Diplomatic postureReactive and cautiousAssertive, rights-focused
Military doctrineDefensive on LoCProactive, cross-border capable
Public rhetoricAvoiding escalationOpen mention of PoK reintegration
Pakistan’s stabilityModerateHighly fragile
Global supportLimitedIncreasing for India

This transformation underscores a new phase where India sets the tempo of regional discourse, and Pakistan struggles to keep pace.

Possible Future Scenarios

1. Controlled Diplomatic Escalation

India continues to use diplomatic forums to isolate Pakistan while supporting PoK voices indirectly.
Likelihood: High | Risk: Low

2. Targeted Counter-Terror Strikes

India may repeat precision operations similar to Operation Sindoor to neutralize threats.
Likelihood: Moderate | Risk: Medium

3. Information Campaign Expansion

India might increase outreach to international media, think tanks, and diaspora groups to expose Pakistan’s governance failures in PoK.
Likelihood: High | Risk: Low

4. Full-Scale Escalation

A major border incident could trigger a short military confrontation, though both sides will try to avoid war due to nuclear deterrence.
Likelihood: Low | Risk: Very High

Why Pakistan Appears “Jittery”

The phrase “Pakistan is jittery” stems from observable behavioral cues:

  • Sudden statements from Pakistani ministers warning of “catastrophic consequences.”
  • Frequent military briefings emphasizing readiness, despite no Indian provocation.
  • Heightened censorship of social media content from PoK.
  • Rapid troop deployment along the Neelum and Jhelum valleys.
  • Public appeals to the UN and OIC for intervention — often ignored.

Collectively, these actions indicate a state of nervousness, reflecting not only strategic uncertainty but also the erosion of internal confidence.

Conclusion

India’s calculated assertiveness on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir has altered South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. For the first time in decades, Pakistan finds itself on the back foot, facing diplomatic embarrassment, internal unrest, and economic strain — all while India consolidates international goodwill and domestic unity on the issue.

If this trajectory continues, Pakistan’s administrative control over PoK may weaken further, opening new possibilities for India’s long-term integration vision. However, both sides must remain cautious — the stakes are high, and any miscalculation could risk regional stability.

India’s current approach — measured assertiveness without overreach — appears to be yielding both strategic leverage and psychological advantage.

Disclaimer:

This article is an analytical interpretation based on current events, statistical data, and policy trends. It does not represent official government positions or confidential information. The purpose is informational and educational, not political or propagandist.