If Hamas Fails to Surrender Arms: Trump’s Ultimatum, Geopolitical Stakes, Ceasefire Reality & Future Risks

Oct 16, 2025

—

On October 14, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Hamas, declaring: “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.” He cautioned that such disarmament could take place “quickly and perhaps violently.” This bold ultimatum came amid a fragile ceasefire, ongoing hostage negotiations, and immense humanitarian pressure in Gaza.

In this article, we dive deep into the context, ramifications, key figures, timelines, stakeholder reactions, and what may lie ahead if disarmament is not achieved peacefully.

Background Context

The Gaza War & Ceasefire Build-Up

The war between Israel and Hamas reignited massively after the October 7, 2023 militant incursions, with thousands of casualties on both sides.
By mid-2025, estimates placed Palestinian fatalities in Gaza at over 60,000 to 70,000, though figures vary by source.
A U.S.-brokered “20-point peace / ceasefire plan” was proposed by Trump on September 29, 2025, seeking to end hostilities, exchange hostages, and initiate disarmament. Wikipedia+2Wikipedia+2
On October 9, 2025, Hamas and Israel signed phase one of that peace plan in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Wikipedia+1
Key elements: Israeli forces would withdraw to agreed lines, all living hostages should be released within 72 hours of that withdrawal, and humanitarian aid would be allowed into Gaza. Wikipedia+2Wikipedia+2

Despite the signature, the plan’s success hinged on full cooperation—including Hamas relinquishing arms and Israel permitting aid.

Trump’s Ultimatum: What He Said & Implied

On October 14, during his return to Washington, Trump reiterated that disarmament was essential to lasting peace. He claimed some verbal assurances had been made by Hamas, but clarified he had not accepted them as binding. Importantly, he refused to disclose specific timelines or tactics. The Guardian+4The Washington Post+4The Guardian+4

Key phrases from his remarks:

“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.”
Disarmament could occur “quickly and perhaps violently.”
He later stated the U.S. military would not necessarily need to intervene directly—though Israel might.
At one point, he acknowledged that Hamas had been granted temporary approval to maintain internal security in Gaza pending full transitions. The Guardian+3Reuters+3The Guardian+3

Trump’s posture sets a tough benchmark: the peace deal is not open-ended unless disarmament occurs.

Key Data & Figures

Metric / Item	Value / Description	Notes / Source
Hostages originally held by Hamas	~ 28 deceased hostages promised for return	Only eight had been delivered at time of reporting AP News+4Reuters+4The Guardian+4
Palestinian deaths in Gaza (2023–2025)	60,000–70,000+	Different sources vary; Israeli bombardment and blockade implied factors
Israeli casualties & hostages from Oct 7, 2023 attack	~ 1,200 Israelis killed, 251 taken hostage	As per multiple accounts summarizing the origin of conflict escalation
Key dates	Sept 29, 2025 (peace plan announced)	first phase signed Oct 9, 2025 Reuters+4Wikipedia+4Wikipedia+4
Military personnel deployment	Up to 200 U.S. troops in Israel (not entering Gaza)	To support stabilization and monitoring tasks Reuters+2Politico+2
Nations in talks for stabilization force	Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan	Discussions underway to contribute to Gaza’s future security force Politico

These numbers reflect the scale, but also the uncertainties—in part due to fast-moving developments, conflicting claims, and limited verification on the ground.

Stakeholder Responses & Positions

Hamas

Publicly, Hamas has resisted full disarmament, viewing arms as essential to its identity and defense.
Some leaders claim that certain weapons are entrenched in areas now heavily damaged or inaccessible.
Following the ceasefire, Hamas redeployed security forces across Gaza and reportedly executed alleged collaborators—moves seen as asserting control and leverage. Reuters+3Reuters+3The Guardian+3

Israel

The Israeli government has insisted that Hamas must surrender arms as a precondition to any final peace.
Israeli officials have publicly committed to using force again if Hamas is noncompliant.
Israel has withheld full aid access and closed certain crossings (e.g. Rafah) citing Hamas’s delayed return of hostages / bodies. AP News+3Reuters+3The Guardian+3

United States & U.S. Military / CENTCOM

The U.S. publicly supports Trump’s ultimatum.
Central Command (CENTCOM) directly urged Hamas to “end violence and disarm without delay.” Reuters
U.S. officials maintain they will not send troops into Gaza, though some are stationed in Israel. Reuters+1
The U.S. aims to form an International Stabilization Force (ISF) comprising Arab and global partners to oversee demilitarization, train a Palestinian police force, and maintain security. Politico+3Wikipedia+3Politico+3

Regional Actors & Arab States

Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and Jordan support mediation and have pressed Hamas to accept the peace plan. The Guardian+2Politico+2
Arab states are under pressure to contribute troops to stabilization efforts, but formal commitments remain tentative. Politico

Risks, Challenges & Strategic Dilemmas

Enforcement Mechanism Ambiguity
Trump declined to specify how disarmament would be enforced, leaving open whether force would be U.S., Israeli, or proxy-led. This ambiguity raises concerns about escalation.
Territorial and Structural Devastation
Much of Gaza has been destroyed, with many arms possibly buried or disconnected. Recovery of some weapon caches may be physically impossible or exorbitantly costly.
Legitimacy and Governance Vacuum
If Hamas is stripped of its military and political role, who governs Gaza? The transition authority led by technocrats or international oversight may face popular resistance.
Humanitarian Fragility
Gaza was already under famine threats before the latest conflict. Interrupting aid routes over compliance disputes endangers millions. AP News+3Wikipedia+3The Guardian+3
Spoilers & Internal Fissures
Internal clashes—gangs, clans, militant offshoots—may act against both Hamas and external forces, complicating disarmament and stabilization.
International Backlash & Reputation Risks
Use of force against a group tied to civilian population carries risks of tragic collateral damage and legal / human rights scrutiny.

What Happens If Disarmament Fails?

Scenario	Potential Outcome	Implications
U.S. / Israeli military action	Renewed fighting, airstrikes, ground incursions	Large casualties, infrastructure damage, further humanitarian collapse
Stalemate with weak enforcement	Ceasefire holds but is fragile and subject to violation	Frequent skirmishes, weak governance, continuous tension
Negotiated partial disarmament	Some arms turned in, others retained	Creates fractured security architecture and trust deficits
Arms suppression via proxy / local policing	Use of local forces or international police to disarm	Less overt external footprint but dependent on local compliance
Complete disarmament & transition authority	Arms relinquished, governance transferred	Most stable—but hardest to achieve realistically

Timeline Snapshot

Sept 29, 2025 – Trump unveils 20-point Gaza peace plan.
Oct 3–5, 2025 – Negotiations intensify; calls for Hamas to respond quickly. The Guardian+2Politico+2
Oct 9, 2025 – Israel and Hamas sign phase one of ceasefire in Sharm el-Sheikh. Wikipedia+2AP News+2
Oct 10, 2025 – Ceasefire and hostilities pause begins; movements of aid and prisoners start.
Oct 14, 2025 – Trump delivers public ultimatum to Hamas: disarm or face forced disarmament.
Oct 15, 2025 – Partial deliveries of deceased hostages (bodies) continue; tensions over full compliance intensify. Reuters+2The Guardian+2

Editorial Analysis & Interpretation

Trump’s ultimatum is dramatic but also high-risk. On one hand, it crystallizes pressure on Hamas, signaling that diplomacy has limits without security guarantees. On the other, the lack of clarity about force and legitimacy sets the stage for wide uncertainty.

If Hamas capitulates, the political geography of Gaza will be remade, with power vacuums, new security forces, and external oversight. But that is a tall order: the costs (militarily, socially, economically) are immense.

Disarmament is a logical linchpin in any peace; however, past ceasefires in Gaza have failed when arms retention remained a latent tension. This time, the combination of mass devastation, high fatality tolls, and international attention raises the stakes. Failure to deliver may reignite war—and with potentially greater destruction given hollowed infrastructure.

On the flip side, partial compliance with delayed or selective disarmament might produce a limping peace, but leave room for future destabilization or fragmentation. The question is whether external actors (U.S., Israel, Arab states) have the will and capacity to stabilize Gaza long term—even if disarmament is achieved in part.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s stark declaration to Hamas—“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them”—is a bold gambit in a highly volatile context. With phase one of ceasefire in motion, the success or failure of disarmament may determine whether Gaza enters a fragile peace or spirals back into war.

The challenges are titanic: logistical, legal, political, humanitarian, and military. Even with full intent, the path to disarmament is uncertain. The next days and weeks may decide whether peace holds or the conflict reignites.

Disclaimer:
This article is based on publicly available reports as of October 2025, media sources, and analytical interpretation. It aims to provide educational and informational insight, not to assert definitive truth. The situation on the ground is fluid; actual developments may differ.

About the author

I’m Himanshu Dhar, a dedicated MIS trainer proudly associated with I Turn Institute. My journey in the realm of data management and automation spans over 14 enriching years. My passion for this field extends to freelancing projects, where I bring real-world practicality into my teaching. My impact in education is marked by the success of over 25,000 students I’ve had the privilege of mentoring, hailing from diverse backgrounds. Beyond the classroom, I’ve had the honor of conducting corporate training sessions and seminars, catering to the unique needs of businesses. Let’s unlock your potential together in the realm of data analysis and automation.