How China Can Benefit More by Befriending India Compared to Pakistan

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by

Himanshu
in

China’s foreign policy in South Asia has historically revolved around India and Pakistan. Traditionally, Beijing has maintained close strategic and military ties with Pakistan, but as global dynamics shift, stronger engagement with India offers far greater economic, geopolitical, and long-term strategic benefits.

1. Economic Power: India vs. Pakistan

FactorIndiaPakistan
GDP (2025 est.)Over $4.1 trillionAround $340 billion
Population1.4 billion (world’s largest market)240 million
Middle Class400+ million strong, growing fastAround 40 million
Trade with China$136 billion+ annually~$30 billion (mostly debt-driven)

Key Insight: India represents a massive consumer market and a tech-driven economy, while Pakistan’s economic returns are limited due to political instability and dependency on Chinese loans.

2. Strategic Geography

  • India:
    • Provides access to the Indian Ocean Region, a critical global trade corridor.
    • Partnership could serve as a counterbalance to Western influence.
    • Collaboration in BRICS, SCO, and G20 boosts China’s diplomatic influence.
  • Pakistan:
    • Strategic for Gwadar Port (CPEC), but plagued by security risks and terrorism concerns.
    • Without external support, Pakistan’s ability to create regional instability or terrorism would be much reduced, making its strategic leverage less significant.

3. Trade and Investment Opportunities

  • India:
    • Thriving IT, manufacturing, renewable energy, and healthcare sectors.
    • “Make in India” initiative allows foreign firms, including Chinese companies, to establish large-scale operations.
    • Huge market for electronics, EVs, 5G tech, and AI solutions.
  • Pakistan:
    • CPEC projects face delays, security risks, and debt issues.
    • Smaller consumer base limits export potential.
    • Heavy dependence on China can create a one-sided partnership, more debt than trade.

4. Geopolitical Balance

  • China–India Relations:
    • Reducing border tensions and fostering economic cooperation could position India as a key long-term partner in Asia’s multipolar world.
    • A strong China–India relationship may contribute to the emergence of a new world order where Asian powers play a larger role in global governance.
  • China–Pakistan Relations:
    • Pakistan remains a short-term ally with limited influence, heavily reliant on China.
    • With minimal external support, Pakistan is less capable of creating regional instability or supporting terrorism, reducing its strategic leverage.

5. Future Outlook

DimensionChina–India PotentialChina–Pakistan Potential
Economic GrowthMutual investments worth hundreds of billionsLimited to CPEC and defense trade
Global PlatformsCollaboration in BRICS, SCO, G20Regional, limited influence
Stability FactorLong-term growth partner if trust is rebuiltShort-term ally, less capable of conflict without external support
Market Access1.4 billion consumers, global supply chainsRestricted, small market size
Global ImpactCan help shape a new multipolar world orderMinimal global influence

Conclusion

While China’s “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan has symbolic and military value, India offers unmatched economic, demographic, and geopolitical advantages. Strong China–India ties could:

  • Create a stable, multipolar Asia.
  • Open enormous trade and technology opportunities.
  • Reduce regional tensions and limit Pakistan’s ability to create instability or terrorism.
  • Influence the emergence of a new world order, balancing Western dominance with Asian leadership.

For China, the smarter long-term strategy is to resolve border issues, enhance trust, and actively engage India as a strategic partner rather than rely solely on Pakistan.